REPORT: URUGUAYAN EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE GROWING IN 2018

Fecha de publicación: 28/01/2018

In Uruguay, exports of goods increased 10% in 2017 in line with the countries of the region. By 2018, they are expected to continue the path of growth. Exports of Uruguayan goods would grow by 1.5% in 2018, thanks to the stability in commodity prices, better prospects in the region and a world economy that will continue to grow at moderate rates, according to the projections prepared by Uruguay XXI in the International Trade Prospects Report.

In Uruguay, exports of goods increased 10% in 2017 in line with the countries of the region. By 2018, they are expected to continue the path of growth. Exports of Uruguayan goods would grow by 1.5% in 2018, thanks to the stability in commodity prices, better prospects in the region and a world economy that will continue to grow at moderate rates, according to the projections prepared by Uruguay XXI in the International Trade Prospects Report.

According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), world trade in goods registered an increase of 3.6% in 2017. The organization forecasts growth of 3.2% by 2018. These projections are in line with other international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund that foresee a slight slowdown in the growth of international trade for this year.

Exports from Latin America and the Caribbean would have grown in the order of 13.1% in 2017.

Although most of the countries of the region registered important increases, these in general do not manage to compensate the falls registered of previous years. By 2018, exports of goods from Latin America will grow at a slower pace. The growth is mainly explained by higher volumes exported.

Exports of Uruguayan goods would have an increase of around 1.5% in 2018. In terms of products, beef will again lead the external sales of 2018 with amounts exceeding US $ 1,500 million. The World Bank foresees a recovery in international prices that would positively affect the amounts exported by Uruguay, while the tons slaughtered would remain stable.

Pulp will be the second product exported in 2018, with estimated exports of US $ 1,400 million. The volume exported will remain practically unchanged, with an approximate production of 1.3 million tons per year by each plant.

The third place in the ranking of exported products would be soy, although 2018 is expected to be a year of export retraction. In any case, the total export of soybeans would be close to US $ 1,000 million.

Although China's economy will slow slightly in 2018, it will remain the main destination for Uruguayan exports. The growth of this market in the last two decades has modified the global dynamics of trade and in Uruguay the influence has been particularly important since 2008. Currently, it is the destination of the three main export products of the country.

In 2017, the Brazilian economy - Uruguay's second largest trading partner - managed to emerge from a deep recession. It is expected that in 2018 the path of growth will continue, at levels close to 2.1% according to the latest projections.

For its part, Argentina, another relevant partner for the country, also resumed growth in 2017 and it is expected that in 2018 the level of activity will increase 3%, slightly above the previous year. It should be remembered that Argentina is a relevant partner not only as a destination for the exports of goods, but mainly for tourism and for being one of the main origins of the Investment.

The estimations indicate that the economy of the United States grew at a rate of 2.2% in 2017, which implied an acceleration with respect to 2016. For 2018, the IMF estimates a slightly higher growth (2.3%).

For its part, in the Euro Zone, the Brexit process will affect trade relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union and will have an impact on global trade flows. Despite the political context, the economic situation of the bloc is showing signs of improvement.

The regional economic perspectives are those that would generate a greater impulse of Uruguay's trade in 2018. From the world economy, although the signals are mixed, demand would grow moderately. Commodity prices would also grow moderately contributing to an increase in exports in most of the exportable items of the country.

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Palabras clave:

  • Exports
  • Agribusiness
  • Forestry sector
  • Asia
  • share